Commonly, the first month of autumn has been a positive period for the US dollar. At first glance, judging by the US dollar chart, everything is going according to standard today. Importantly, US stock markets are closed today on the occasion of the national holiday, Labor Day. It means that the global market is thin. In turn, most assets today will most likely consolidate around the levels ​​reached on Friday.
The US dollar perked up on Friday in light of crucial economic data. It was reported that personal spending and income inflation accelerated in August. The annual rate of inflation growth in the US missed the forecasts and came out at the previous level of 2.5%.
Thus, the scenario of a sharp rate cut by the Federal Reserve should be updated. In theory, choosing between a rate cut of 50 or 25 basis points, the US central bank should prefer the second option.
Even though the US regulator ventures into a jumbo rate cut, the disparity in interest rates will still work in favor of the US dollar. That is, the key interest rate in the US will still be higher than the monetary settings of its other European and Asian counterparts.
The US dollar index measuring the greenback’s strength against its six main partners is consolidating in a narrow range of 101.5 to 101.8, ready to maintain the bullish momentum. So, those forex speculators who abandoned long positions on the dollar in favor of short ones may have taken a hasty decision.
The euro/dollar pair is about to resume falling. Even though the Federal Reserve clearly intends to move towards softening its monetary policy, this will hardly help the single European currency. The fact is that inflation is lower in Europe and consumer prices are falling faster than in the US.
Meanwhile, the instrument is going through an upward correction, during which the price reached the upper border of the psychological area of 1.1000 to 1.1050. At such levels, the sellers are exiting the market. This level serves as a support for them. According to technical analysis, it may signal that the upward correction is over.
If this scenario comes true, traders will add long positions on the euro/dollar pair. Importantly, the psychological area around 1.1000 embraces 100 pips. That is, the amplitude includes 50 pips in each direction from the middle level.
Oil prices are also trading lower today. Brent futures continue to follow a bearish cycle, which is confirmed by the price dropping to a local low. For the current downtrend to continue, the price needs to stabilize below 75 dollars per barrel. Otherwise, the area between 75 and 75.5 may again act as support.
This will encourage a rebound in the Brent price. However, in the meantime, Brent crude is extending its weakness mainly due to rumors that OPEC and its allies intend to raise output quotas in October. However, these are just rumors for now. There are no official statements on this matter from the largest oil exporters.
Moreover, storage facilities in Europe are full, and no energy shortage is expected ahead of the heating season. Based on this, in theory, oil prices are likely to resume growth as soon as the market realizes that no increase in production volumes will follow. Nevertheless, prices may still slide a little based on rumors and expectations.
The Russian ruble is showing remarkable resilience in the face of the unclear sentiment among oil traders and the revived US dollar. So, the dollar/ruble pair has been trading at around 91 for two weeks in a row.
At the moment, there is some local strengthening of the ruble. Apparently, this is only a shift to the lower border of the range with borders between 90 and 92. Once the lower border is touched, the instrument will head for the upper border.

00:00 INTRODUCTION
00:27 US PCE CONSUMER
PRICE INDEX
01:01 USDX
01:43 EUR/USD
02:48 BRENT
04:04 USD/RUB

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