Bitcoin continues to actively explore the $19k–$21k range as the overall market situation stabilizes after a record collapse. Analysts note that due to the stabilization of quotes, the main cryptocurrency began to be considered as a safe haven. This process takes place against the background of growing volumes of short positions on major altcoins. The growing interest in BTC as a defensive asset can be taken as a positive signal indicating a gradual return of the market to its usual course.
However, the general market situation remains critical, despite local positive moments. Miners have become the main sponsor of the fall in market capitalization and Bitcoin. In June, cryptocurrency miners sold off 20% of the total BTC in free float, a huge contributor to the market crash. And there is every reason to believe that miners can provoke a second decline in the entire market, and in particular Bitcoin. Despite the decrease in realized losses, miners continue to sell BTC coins locally, and the risk of a sharp price collapse will soon increase significantly.
Bloomberg reports that most mining companies have encountered difficulties servicing loans secured by cryptocurrency mining equipment. The publication estimates the total debt obligations of digital asset mining companies at $4 billion. The catalysts for the emergence and growth of debt were a difficult market situation, as well as a revaluation of mining devices. According to Arcane Research, when using conventional mining equipment, the cost of mining one BTC is $8,000. However, when using advanced systems, mining one coin can cost $20,000.
The situation remains tense, because even taking into account the receipt of a certain profit, it may not be enough to cover the basic costs and earn a living. Therefore, the likelihood of a mass sale of BTC coins to cover debts exists. In addition, the overall liquidity situation for Bitcoin remains negative. According to data from CoinShares, the previous week saw a record $423 million outflow of investments from BTC. All volumes of withdrawn funds fell on the first cryptocurrency.
Given this fact, we can conclude that the situation with liquidity in the market remains critical, which can become the main factor in the sale of BTC coins accumulated by miners. Given the massive opening of short positions on major altcoins, the ongoing capitulation and massive outflow of funds from Bitcoin, as well as a likely sell-off from miners, two scenarios can be assumed.
The first option involves a massive and rapid sale of BTC due to bright fundamental news, which suggests an even greater fall in the price of Bitcoin. In such a situation, miners will begin to sell their reserves to get quick access to liquidity. With this development of events, there is no doubt that Bitcoin will again fall below the $20k level, retest $17.7k, and possibly update the local bottom. After all, BTC fell by 73%, and the fall can reach up to 80%–85%. Market capitalization will again test the level of $800 billion.
The second scenario has already been described by JPMorgan experts. Miners will continue to sell BTC coins in local outbreaks to cover current costs. With this option, you should not expect an impulse price reduction. Instead, the duration of the current phase of the bear market will be delayed due to the constant pressure on the price from the miners. However, the weakness of this option is that it does not take into account the factor of fundamental events. The situation in the world is unpredictable, and any escalation or new tough sanctions can completely change the market environment, which can serve as a catalyst for the implementation of the first scenario.
