Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 150.10 occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential, particularly in a bearish market. For this reason, I decided not to buy the dollar.

Today, data on Tokyo's consumer price index, excluding fresh food prices, and Japan's industrial production were released, and both reports were disappointing. However, this had little impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate, likely because the market had already priced in some economic weakness and the potential for further rate hikes. Additionally, investors are currently more focused on U.S. fiscal and monetary policy. Strong inflation data in the U.S. could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive stance, which would be detrimental to the American economy but supportive of the dollar in the short term.

I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's intraday strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY when it reaches the entry point around 150.15 (green line on chart) with the goal of rising to the level of 150.84 (thicker green line on chart). At 150.84, I plan to exit the buy position and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip retracement. It is best to buy the pair during pullbacks or significant corrections. Before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests 149.60 twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 150.15 and 150.84 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY after breaking below 149.60 (the red line on the chart) could lead to a sharp decline. The key target for sellers is 148.83, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip reversal. Selling pressure could return at any time. Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Selling is also planned if the price tests 150.15 twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal to the downside. A decline to the opposite level of 149.60 and 148.83 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.