Forex Analysis & Reviews: 13.10.2020 - Oil price weakly increases...

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13.10.2020 11:02 AM

Oil price weakly increases as problems stacked market

The price of crude oil slightly rises Tuesday morning but is barely noticeable against the background of Monday's deep fall.

The price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in December on the trading floor in London rose slightly by 0.17% or $0.07, which moved it to the level of $41.79 per barrel. Monday's trading ended with a reduction of 2.6% or $ 1.13.

The price of futures contracts for WTI crude oil for delivery in November on the electronic trading platform in New York also makes attempts to recoup Monday's fall. It gained 0.18% or $0.07, and the current level is $39.5 per barrel. Monday's trading session brought a serious decline of 2.9% or $1.17.

All this forced both oil contracts to close Monday's trading session with a minimum value that was last recorded more than a week ago. Such a pullback, of course, cannot please market participants, although they still have hopes for a positive outlook.

Meanwhile, weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico have finally improved, and oil production stations are slowly returning to usual operations. According to data from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, approximately 69.4% remained disabled on Monday, compared with 91% a day earlier. If things continue at this pace, then by the end of this week, oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will be fully back in operations.

However, experts are in no hurry to build bright prospects and warn of new disruptions, as the hurricane season in South America is still in full swing. In this regard, it is worth being prepared for the next downtime and interruptions in production.

Disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico have a rather positive effect on the crude oil market. Against this background, there is an increase in the cost of black gold as well as its demand.

The end of strikes in Norway and the gradual return of full production in the North Sea is currently becoming a restraining factor for the oil market, as well as the intentions of the Libyan oil company to resume production of crude oil in the country's largest field. All this can change the vector of price movement in the raw material market in a negative direction.

In addition, the main reason for the unrest of market participants has not gone away but is only gaining momentum. We are talking about the growth of coronavirus infections in the world and the second wave of the pandemic, which scares the market, as it is a serious threat to the world economy, which has not yet fully coped with the crisis after the first wave of the pandemic. The next batch of quarantine restrictive measures does not impress investors as too many losses were recorded after the first quarantine.

Market participants understand that the threat of hurricanes is a seasonal and temporary phenomenon, after which recovery is rapid. But the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic will take a long time to get rid of, especially since the raw material market is already oversupplied and the demand for raw materials is weak. The latter is very sensitive to any kind of restrictions. Thus, in the long run, there is practically nothing positive that investors can tune in to.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.