empty
01.04.2025 11:37 AM
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the USD/JPY pair is struggling to benefit from a slight intraday upward movement, especially amid expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at a faster pace. However, uncertainty surrounding potential retaliatory tariffs from President Trump creates additional risks for the Japanese economy, which could prompt the Bank of Japan to stick to its current policy stance.

Positive sentiment in equity markets and moderate dollar strength are also contributing to the pair hovering near the psychological level of 150.00. According to Tankan index data, Japanese companies have raised their inflation forecasts for the next one, three, and five years. Along with strong consumer inflation figures from Tokyo, this reinforces the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan—creating a divergence with the Federal Reserve's expected path of rate cuts. As a result, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and the U.S. supports the yen, capping USD/JPY's upside potential.

From a technical standpoint, a break below the lower boundary of the multi-week ascending trend channel could indeed be seen as a bearish signal.

However, the current neutral positioning of oscillators on the daily chart suggests caution before opening short positions. A drop below 149.55 would find support near the round level of 149.00. The next support level may stop USD/JPY around 148.70. Further selling would resume the negative bias that has been developing over the past three months.

On the other hand, a breakout above 150.25 would open the path to higher levels such as 150.80 and even 151.00. Sustained strength beyond this zone would shift the bias in favor of the bulls, potentially pushing the pair toward the next round level of 152.00 and beyond.

To identify new trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of key U.S. economic data, such as the JOLTS job openings report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/JPY pair is retreating from the psychological level of 190.00, or a two-week high reached earlier today. Following disappointing UK PMI data, selling pressure has intensified, pulling spot prices

Irina Yanina 18:16 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Market walks through minefield

If the market can rally this much on hints from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about de-escalation in the trade conflict with China, imagine how high the S&P 500 could jump

Marek Petkovich 12:35 2025-04-23 UTC+2

The Likelihood of a Euro Reversal to the South Is Increasing

As expected, the ECB cut all key interest rates by a quarter-point, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%. At this meeting, no new staff projections were released, and given

Kuvat Raharjo 12:01 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Markets Await a Massive Rally if the U.S. Starts Real Negotiations with China (There is a likelihood of continued growth in #NDX and Ethereum)

A new wave of euphoria has swept through the markets. Many believe it's not a coincidence: take everything away from a person and then provide them with even the smallest

Pati Gani 09:03 2025-04-23 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A considerable number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. All of them are Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports for April in the services and manufacturing sectors. The indices will

Paolo Greco 07:01 2025-04-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 23: The British Pound Can't Stop Smiling

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded much more calmly, yet again showed signs of a "maxed-out flat" pattern. As previously noted, the US dollar has only had two behaviors

Paolo Greco 04:56 2025-04-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 23: Another Calm Before Another Collapse?

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Tuesday than on Monday. The US dollar managed to avoid another fall, but it's too early to celebrate. The greenback can collapse

Paolo Greco 04:56 2025-04-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY. On the Threshold of the 139th Figure

The USD/JPY pair has been in a consistent downtrend for the fourth consecutive week. On Tuesday, sellers pushed the pair to the edge of the 139.00 area, hitting the lowest

Irina Manzenko 00:46 2025-04-23 UTC+2

The Dollar Has Been Replaced. Nature Abhors a Vacuum

Fear paralyzes, but action persists. Investors are slowly overcoming their concerns over Donald Trump's attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve and are starting to lock in profits

Marek Petkovich 00:08 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Bitcoin Took Its Chance

Slow and steady wins the race! Bitcoin quietly broke through to its highest levels since early March amid Donald Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell. When the independence of the Federal

Marek Petkovich 00:08 2025-04-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.