In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2919 level as a key entry point. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.2919 provided a selling opportunity for the pound, but no significant decline followed. As a result, the technical outlook for the second half of the day was revised.

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

Buyers no longer struggled to push beyond the 1.2919 resistance and, on their third attempt, successfully broke above this range. In the second half of the day, all eyes will be on the US labor market data, including nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and changes in average hourly earnings. Only exceptionally strong figures could slow the bullish trend in the pound. Otherwise, the upward movement may continue.

In case of a decline in GBP/USD, a false breakout at the 1.2911 level will offer a good buying opportunity, aiming for a recovery toward 1.2940. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range from top to bottom will confirm a long position with prospects for reaching 1.2972, further reinforcing the bullish trend. The ultimate target will be 1.3006, where I plan to lock in profits.

If GBP/USD declines and bulls show no activity at 1.2911 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pound will increase. In this scenario, only a false breakout at 1.2881 will serve as a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from the 1.2846 support level, targeting an intraday correction of 30-35 points.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers failed to make an impact in the first half of the day, allowing bulls to push the pair to a new monthly high. Attention in the second half will shift to the defense of the 1.2940 resistance, formed during the European session. Only strong US labor market data combined with a false breakout at 1.2940 will generate a short entry signal, aiming for a correction toward the 1.2911 support level.

A breakout and retest of this range from below will trigger stop orders and open the path toward 1.2881, where the moving averages, favoring bulls, are located. The ultimate target will be 1.2846, where I plan to lock in profits. A test of this level could put a halt to the bullish market.

If pound demand remains strong in the second half of the day and bears fail to defend 1.2940, the pair will extend its gains. In that case, short positions should be postponed until the 1.2972 resistance is tested. I will consider selling only after a false breakout at this level. If no downward move occurs there, I will look for short positions on a rebound from 1.3006, expecting a 30-35 point correction.

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report from February 25 showed minimal growth in long positions and a decline in short positions. Buyers are gaining increasing dominance over sellers, supporting further GBP/USD growth. Given the progress in resolving the Ukraine conflict and relatively stable UK economic data, investors continue to favor the British pound.

According to the latest COT report, long non-commercial positions increased by 525 to 74,089, while short non-commercial positions declined by 4,517 to 69,626. As a result, the net long-short gap rose by 434.

Indicator Signals

Moving Averages

Trading is above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, signaling continued bullish momentum.

Bollinger BandsThe lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2870 will act as support in case of a decline.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise.
  • 50-period MA (yellow on the chart).
  • 30-period MA (green on the chart).
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
  • Fast EMA – 12-period
  • Slow EMA – 26-period
  • SMA – 9-period
• Bollinger Bands: 20-period.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long non-commercial positions: Total long positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Total short positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Net non-commercial position: The difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.