Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No significant macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. Germany will release a consumer sentiment report, and the U.S. will publish data on new home sales. However, neither of these reports is substantial enough to be considered even "secondary" in importance.

Throughout most of this week, both the euro and the pound have been trading within a flat range. The euro may soon break below its trendline, which could trigger a downtrend for both the euro and the pound. However, volatility remains low, and breaking a trendline in a flat market is not a strong signal for a new trend to emerge. Currently, the flat range is the main factor to consider in trading.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Wednesday, key fundamental events include speeches from officials at the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, specifically Swati Dhingra, Raphael Bostic, and Thomas Barkin. However, the market doesn't currently have significant questions regarding the monetary policy outlook for the UK, Eurozone, or the U.S.

There is some uncertainty surrounding the BoE, as the latest UK inflation report could impact its policy stance for 2025. For this to have a meaningful effect, BoE officials would need to clearly indicate any intention to reduce the number of planned interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, the market has already anticipated a slight softening of the BoE's previously dovish stance, suggesting that this shift may have already been priced in.

General Conclusions:

In summary, for the third trading day of the week, we expect low volatility. The fundamental backdrop is weak, and there is virtually no significant macroeconomic data available.

Currently, the British pound is maintaining a local uptrend, while the euro seems to only suggest growth. In our opinion, these local trends are likely to end soon, as there are no strong reasons—especially for the euro—to continue rising.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.