Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2980 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. I also did not get any other entry points into the market.

Yesterday, the pound reached a monthly peak around the 1.30 level due to the absence of UK economic data and a sustained upward trend. Market optimism regarding the Bank of England's future policy supported this growth. However, the pound's strengthening raises questions about its long-term stability, especially before today's Federal Reserve meeting. The future exchange rate dynamics will likely depend on several factors, including central bank decisions expected this week, notably the BoE's policy announcement.

Since there is no UK economic data today, the pound may attempt to renew its weekly highs in the first half of the day. For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point at 1.2991 (green line) with a growth target of 1.3020 (thicker green line on the chart). In 1.3020, I will get out of purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). We can count on the pound's growth to continue with the upward movement. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its growth from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.2975 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2991 and 1.3020.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after testing the level of 1.2975 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the level of 1.2945, where I will get out of sales, as well as open immediate purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell the pound as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2991 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2975 and 1.2945.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.