Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2941 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point. As a result, the pair gained 30 points, reaching the target level of 1.2970.

The pound continued its rally throughout last week despite the lack of economic data from the U.K.. Traders appear to ignore domestic economic issues, but the question remains how long this trend can persist.

Now, it's best to shift focus to U.S. data. Strong retail sales figures could have undesirable consequences for the British pound. An increase in sales may fuel higher inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on future rate cuts.

Although the Empire Manufacturing Index has a lower significance, it provides insights into the manufacturing sector in New York State. A reading above zero indicates growth, while a negative reading suggests contraction. Additionally, the NAHB Housing Market Index reflects builder confidence and acts as a leading indicator for the housing market.

For intraday trading, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy GBP/USD at 1.2989 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3036. At 1.3036, I plan to exit long positions and open short trades, anticipating a 30-35 point pullback. The trend remains bullish, making further growth likely.

Important! Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying GBP/USD if the price tests 1.2948 twice, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside, with expected targets at 1.2989 and 1.3036.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell GBP/USD after it breaks below 1.2948 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick decline. The target is 1.2898, where I will exit short positions and open long trades for a 20-25 point rebound. Bears will likely step in if U.S. data strengthens the dollar.

Important! Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling GBP/USD if the price tests 1.2989 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward, with expected targets at 1.2948 and 1.2898.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – Expected target for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – Expected target for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Always consider overbought and oversold conditions when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Making trading decisions requires extreme caution. Avoid entering the market before key fundamental reports, as sudden price swings can lead to significant losses.

If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

For successful trading, you need a clear and structured trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on short-term price movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.