empty
11.01.2024 02:20 PM
Start of BTC-ETF trading and alarming forecast for CPI: what to expect from Bitcoin?

The long saga of approving spot BTC-ETFs, whose intense phase lasted over two months, concluded with a statement from the SEC approving all applications. Despite the weak reaction of the BTC/USD quotes to this event, a significant increase in trading activity and renewal of absolute highs should be expected in the medium and short term. However, there are reasons for concern regarding the short-term prospects.

This image is no longer relevant

Apart from the classic overheating of Bitcoin and the fact that the absolute majority of BTC coins are in profit, fundamental market sentiments have declined. This is primarily due to changes in priorities and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy. There is a high probability that investors and traders have overestimated their expectations, which may now lead to the start of a local correction, including in the cryptocurrency market.

Inflation Data

Today at 13:30 GMT, a publication of a key macroeconomic factor will take place, which will significantly influence the Fed's decision at the end of January. Investors' opinions are divided regarding the report reflecting the change in the consumer price index for December 2023. Traders and market makers suggest that inflation in the USA may accelerate relative to November, returning to the 3.2% mark. This could be a reason that prompts the Fed to delay the start of easing monetary policy.

This image is no longer relevant

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, only 2.6% of investors and traders are confident that the Fed may lower the interest rate at the meeting on January 31st. Meanwhile, another pause in raising the rate is no longer perceived by investors as a positive signal, as the markets expect the beginning of a cycle of easing monetary policy. Considering this fact, Bitcoin and other investment assets are under increased pressure from sellers.

This image is no longer relevant

However, there is every reason to believe that the situation may change if inflation falls below the 3.0% mark, restoring hope for a faster start to the Fed's easing of monetary policy. The current CPI forecasts are among the most uncertain, so heightened volatility is expected in the markets. Considering the start of BTC-ETF trading, a real storm is expected in the Bitcoin market today.

First Day of BTC-ETF Trading

The SEC published a document stating that the regulator approved applications for the launch of spot BTC-ETFs from ARK, 21Shares, Bitwise, BlackRock, IBTC, Fidelity, Franklin, Grayscale, Hashdex, Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, Valkyrie, and WisdomTree. Today, January 11th, marks the start of ETF trading, so it is quite likely that liquidity volumes and volatility in the BTC market will significantly increase. From today, banks, investment and pension funds, and other institutional investors can invest in Bitcoin.

This image is no longer relevant

Despite the overall positivity, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler noted that the approval of the ETFs does not change the regulator's attitude towards other cryptocurrencies and their status. The Commission will also investigate any fraud or manipulation in the securities markets, including BTC-ETFs. Concluding, Gensler remarked that despite the approval of spot BTC-ETFs, the regulator does not support or endorse Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency.

BTC/USD Analysis

The last few days have been maximally volatile for Bitcoin, leading to the liquidation of traders' positions. By the end of yesterday, the asset tested a new high at $47.6k, then dropped to $44.3k. Bitcoin ended the trading day above the $46.5k level. As of January 11th, the cryptocurrency is trading near the $46.3k level with daily trading volumes around $52 billion.

This image is no longer relevant

Despite the conclusion of the saga with the approval of spot BTC-ETF, the market remains highly volatile, increasing the chance of price manipulation by market makers. Additionally, the positive impact of the approval of the spot crypto product may be overshadowed by the resurgence of inflation in the USA, pushing expectations for the start of monetary policy easing to the second half of 2024.

Conclusions

Leading crypto analysts and financiers have called the approval of spot BTC-ETFs a turning point for the crypto economy. The saturation of the market with liquidity will reduce its volatility and susceptibility to manipulation, which, in turn, will significantly increase its investment attractiveness. Also, the BTC halving will begin in April, providing additional support to the asset's quotes, leading to significant growth in capitalization and renewing its high above $70k.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 18 de abril

El Bitcoin y el Ethereum permanecen dentro de sus canales laterales y la incapacidad para salir de estos rangos podría poner en peligro las perspectivas de una recuperación más amplia

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:30 2025-04-18 UTC+2

El interés por el Bitcoin y el Ethereum está regresando

Mientras el Bitcoin y el Ethereum aún no logran encontrar la fuerza para volver al mercado alcista, asustando cada vez a los inversores y traders con fuertes retrocesos hacia

Jakub Novak 07:29 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar con el Bitcoin el 18 de abril según el sistema ICT.

El Bitcoin continúa su recuperación, pero el potencial de crecimiento está limitado por la FVG más cercana, que el precio no ha podido superar durante ya 6 días. El precio

Paolo Greco 07:29 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 17 de abril

El Bitcoin y el Ether cayeron bastante después de la intervención de ayer del presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, quien declaró que el regulador ya no planea reducir

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:50 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar con el Bitcoin el 17 de abril según el sistema ICT.

El Bitcoin continúa su recuperación, pero el potencial de crecimiento está limitado por el FVG más cercano, que el precio no ha podido superar desde hace 5 días. Últimamente

Paolo Greco 07:50 2025-04-17 UTC+2

El Bitcoin regresó al nivel de $83 000

La caída de ayer del mercado bursátil estadounidense arrastró consigo al Bitcoin y al Ethereum. Los inversores, asustados por la perspectiva de una recesión en EE. UU. y la huida

Jakub Novak 10:31 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 16 de abril

La presión sobre el mercado de criptomonedas regresó ayer justo después de que los traders e inversores volvieran a realizar ventas masivas de acciones en el mercado bursátil

Miroslaw Bawulski 10:31 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Análisis del par BTC/USD. El 15 de abril. El Bitcoin atrae a una trampa

El conteo de ondas del gráfico de 4 horas para el par BTC/USD es completamente claro. Después de completar una fase alcista compuesta por cinco ondas completas, comenzó la formación

Chin Zhao 08:06 2025-04-15 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar con el Bitcoin para el 15 de abril según el sistema ICT.

El Bitcoin se está recuperando, pero su potencial de crecimiento es limitado. Últimamente ha habido pocas noticias del mundo de las criptomonedas, y Donald Trump continúa imponiendo sanciones, aranceles

Paolo Greco 07:13 2025-04-15 UTC+2

Recomendaciones de trading en el mercado de criptomonedas para el 14 de abril

El Bitcoin y el Ether mostraron una estabilidad bastante buena durante el fin de semana, preservando las posibilidades de una mayor recuperación. Y aunque desde un punto de vista técnico

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:17 2025-04-14 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.